Starting Pitching is a position that you must have a good handle on if you want to contend in your league. 4 of your 10 fantasy categories will be won or lost with your starting pitchers (W, Ks, ERA, and WHIP). While having relievers with strong ERA and WHIP numbers is helpful, your starters’ numbers will carry much more weight in those categories because they pitch more innings. This is what makes starting pitching so important. It is the backbone of your team. You even have be careful not to get too far behind in these categories, because after the first half, it is very hard to make up ground in the “average” categories.
New York's Johan Santana is still the man, but...
Innings pitched and Ks per 9 are also important stats to consider when evaluating pitchers. You can consider Brandon Webb as a perfect example of how a pitcher can be completely dominant, win 20 + games, and be a Cy Young contender, but still be considerably less valuable than Tim Lincecum. Lincecum struck out 80 more batters than Webb in roughly the same amount of innings. Not to say Webb is not fit to be an ace, but when choosing between starters on draft night, this is an extremely important statistic to consider.
There are many strategies as to how to build a top flight pitching staff. Some owners like to draft a couple top talent starters early, and search for bargains late in the draft and on the waiver wire. Others like to stockpile steady options and a hope to hit on a bigtime sleeper to lead their staff, like Cliff Lee or Ryan Dempster did last season. No matter how you do it, you have to build a strong rotation if you want to have a chance to win your league.
TOP 25
1. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
I’ve seen various rankings of the Starting Pitchers going into 2009, and there is definitely a split decision over who the #1 fantasy starter is going to be. For me, I chose Tim Lincecum over Johan Santana for a few reasons. Lincecum’s 265 Ks led all major league pitchers last season, while Santana’s K totals have been declining each year since 2006. Lincecum is also 5 years younger than Santana, he will be 25 in June. One argument I hear in favor of Santana is his supposed edge in getting Wins in ‘09 playing for a stronger NY Mets team, but Lincecum still won 18 games last year. Two more than Johan’s 16, so I’ll call that a push. You can’t go wrong with either guy, but if you’re asking me, I prefer Tiny Tim.
2. Johan Santana – New York Mets
As mentioned above, Santana is arguably just as valuable as Tim Lincecum. Playing for a contender in NY, and an improved Mets bullpen are factors that should give fantasy owners confidence that he’ll increase his win totals in ‘09. His ERA and WHIP numbers are always elite (2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP last season). If Santana’s Spring Training injury worries are behind him, you can expect yet another elite fantasy season with 18-20 wins and 200 Ks from New York’s ace.
3. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
New York’s other ace. In all likelihood, Sabathia will be the Yanks’ opening day starter in 2009. After getting off to a rough start in 2008, Sabathia rebounded nicely before being traded to Milwaukee. CC’s half season in Milwaukee was certainly memorable, as the hefty lefty simply dominated the NL competition. Sabathia started 17 games and earned 11 Wins, including 7 complete games and 3 shutouts. He also had a tiny ERA of 1.65 with a 1.00 WHIP. This was enough for Sabathia to land the largest ever contract for a Starting Pitcher in NY. The expecations for CC are high for fantasy owners, but possibly even higher in the Big Apple.
4. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
Philadephia’s Ace, and World Series MVP had his coming out party last October. Still only 25 years old, Hamels has now had 3 solid seasons, each better than the last. His numbers last year were very impressive. While only winning 14 games, he pitched to a 3.09 ERA and a miniscule 1.09 WHIp, striking out just under 200 batters. Hamels should only improve upon those numbers in 2009.
5. Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres
San Diego’s Jake Peavy has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers at the position for the past several years. In terms of ERA, WHIP, and Ks he has always produced elite numbers. However, playing for the non-contending Padres has hurt his value in terms of wins. If Peavy could win 20 games, his value would be right there with the top 2.
6. Dan Haren – Arizona Diamondbacks
I have Haren rated a little bit higher than most, but his talent is undeniable. Since becoming a full time starter for Oakland in 2005, Haren has never had a higher WHIP since that season’s 1.21. His strike out totals have also increased each season in that same time span. Haren has averaged 15 wins per season during this span, so he should easily replicate that number as well.
7. Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
Halladay had his best season in 2008 going 20-11 with 206 Ks and and ERA under 3. Halladay has a reputation for being an “innings eater” and rightufully so, he pitched 246 of them last season. Halladay’s value is just little bit limited in these rankings because of a couple factors. At the age of 32, I don’t expect Halladay to improve upon his career year in 2008 and he is going to be pitching in the meat grinder known as the AL East. Facing New York, Boston and Tampa Bay multiple times a year will be trying for any pitcher.
8. Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks
Haren’s partner at the top of Arizona’s rotation has made a career for himself with his excellent sinker. He won 22 games last season employing that weapon, and put up his usual solid ERA and WHIP numbers (3.30 and 1.20, respectively). Being a ground ball pitcher works against his fantasy value because it limits his Ks, but Webb is still an attractive option at the top of your fantasy rotation.
9. Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers
Billingsly broke out as a Cy Young candidate last season for LA. His 16 wins, 201 Ks, and 3.14 ERA were all career bests for the 25 year old. With Billingsly playing for a Dodger team that expects to contend, he will be counted on to perform as an ace both on the field and on fantasy rosters. He will not disappoint. You can expect to see similar output from the young ace in 2009.
10. Rich Harden – Chicago Cubs
I am basing this rank on the ridiculous gut feeling I have that Harden will stay healthy throughout 2009. After being traded to Chicago last season, Harden started 12 games for the Cubbies compiling 5 wins in those starts with a sparkling ERA of 1.77 and a .95 WHIP. He also managed 89 Ks in 71 IP during his NL stint. Returning healthy to the Cubs rotation, I am expecting big things from Harden. If he can shake his injury woes, he is a legit fantasy ace.
11. John Lackey – Los Angeles Angels
One of the more consistent pitchers in the AL over the past few years, Lackey should be in regular form in ‘09. He missed a handful of starts in 2008 with some injury problems, but he won 12 games with solid ERA and WHIP numbers. Over a full season, you can count on 15-18 wins and an ERA around 3 and a WHIP under 1.30.
12. Cliff Lee – Cleveland Indians
I was a big fan of Cliff Lee after his 18 win 2005 season. In ‘06 he had another year throwing 200 innings, but his stats took a decline and he won only 14 games. Lee followed that up with a forgettable 2007 in which he got battered around to the tune of a 6.29 ERA. By this time I wanted nothing to do with Cliff Lee ever again. But in 2008, I along with many others were proven to be very wrong. Lee won 22 games with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.11 ERA. It would be difficult to expect Lee to replicate those gawdy numbers, but Lee will be one of the top pitchers taken in drafts.
13. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
I fear being labeled a hater due to my NY allegiances, but I have to say that Beckett’s reputation far exceeds his actual value. Playing for Boston he is still a threat to win 20 games any year that he makes 30 starts, but his numbers have been inconsistent over the years. Two years ago he had a 5 ERA for the Sox. The year after he won 20 games. He has proven to be a good playoff pitcher, but be careful drafting Beckett because you never know which Josh Beckett you’re going to see.
14. Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels
In 2007 Santana had ridiculous trouble pitching on the road. He was a pitcher with a 3 ERA at home, but when pitching n another team’s ballpark his ERA ballooned to over 8. In ‘08 he got over that, and won 16 games for Los Angeles while amassing 214 Ks. His ERA and WHIP numbers were impressive too – 3.49 and 1.12, respectively.
15. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
People are still waiting to see that same Liriano from 2006 when this man won 12 games and struck out 144 batters in 121 innings. He also had an amazing 2.16 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost him his entire 2007 season. Upon returning to the big leagues in August, Liriano had a great month showing signs of his old self. September was less successful, but we at least saw that the pitcher of 2006 is still in there somewhere.
16. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
King Felix has been making fantasy owners drool since his rookie season in ‘05. He still hasn’t quite lived up to all of that promise yet, but keep in mind that Felix is still only 23. Hernandez looked like he was on his way to being a Cy Young candidate during the first half of last year, but his ERA went from 2.95 to 4.11 for the second half. Even more troubling, his WHIP went from 1.24 to 1.57. I think King Felix is ready to take the next step, and put together a full season like he did the first half last year. If he does, he will be one of the top starters in the AL.
17. Scott Kazmir – Tampa Bay Rays
Although Kazmir missed a handful of starts last season due to injury, he was still an effective and valuable starter over 150 innings. If he goes back to 200 innings, we can expect 200+ Ks from Kazmir, and probably a career high in wins for the ace of the AL Champion Rays.
18. Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros
Oswalt has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball for a number of years. Oswalt boasts a career ERA of 3.13 and a 1.20 WHIP, and has pitched over 200 innings in each of the past 5 seasons. Oswalt can be trusted to get you something close to his career numbers, along with 15 or so wins and 160 Ks.
19. James Shields – Tampa Bay Rays
Shields has pitched 215 innings in each of the past 2 seasons, and is the mark of consistency over the course of the season. He will net teams 15 wins with an ERA in the mid-3’s and a WHIP at 1.20 or below. With the Rays emerging as a power in the AL, more wins are not out of the question.
20. Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees
Well the debate is over…for now. Joba is preparing himself to be a starter this spring, and the Yankees are standing firm that he will be a member of their rotation in 2009. In his limited time as a starter last summer, Joba showed some of that promised that has Yankee brass convinced he is their future ace. Joba’s innings will be somewhat limited, but he is a viable candidate for 15 wins and 200 Ks with strong ERA and WHIP numbers.
21. Edinson Volquez – Cincinnati Reds
Volquez emerged in 2008 as a strong fantasy starter. Over 117 IP in the first half, Volquez struck out 126 batters and pitched to a 2.29 ERA. He wilted a bit in the second half when his ERA nearly doubled, but with a full season of work under his belt, Volquez can be expected to put together 2 strong halves and build on his strong first half of 2008.
22. Carlos Zambrano – Chicago Cubs
Zambrano has been the horse of the Cubs staff for the better part of the decade. Even though his stats show a slight decline over the past few seasons, its important to remember that Zambrano is only 28 and can still produce at a very high level. With the Cubs likely to be in playoff contention, Zambrano will have plenty of chances to get valuable wins.
23. Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals
Greinke made a strong return to Kansas City’s rotation in 2008 pitching over 200 innings, and earning respectable ERA and WHIP totals of 3.47 and 1.28, respectively. Greinke’s K’s per 9 improved over the second half last year, so 200 Ks could be likely. Greinke will only be 26 this season, and his best years are ahead.
24. Daisuke Matsuzaka – Boston Red Sox
Dice-K had his best year yet in 2008 winning 18 games for the Sox and striking out 154 batters in 167 innings. If he can reach 200 IP his Ks will increase, and he could even be a candidate to win 20. With a couple major league seasons under his belt, this is the year he needs to prove he can handle the workload, and pitch effectively through October.
25. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
The young Lester made his impression on the league last year winning 16 games and putting up respectable ERA and WHIP numbers. If Lester can build on his successful 2008, playing for Boston should put him in a position to win 15 or more games.
Sleepers
The Price is Right
David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
This one’s a no brainer. I would call Price a borderline sleeper, only because I don’t think anyone is doubting the ability he showed down the stretch and into the playoffs for the Rays. Price became an extremely valuable asset for the AL champs, and should only improve. He is currently competing for the 5th rotation spot for The Rays, and if he wins it, the former number 1 pick could be an excellent source of Ks.
Jesse Litsch – Toronto Blue Jays
The 24 year old Litsch had a great 2nd half of 2008 that kind of went under the radar. While much attention went to Toronto’s strong rotation last season (Halladay, the departed AJ Burnett, and the now injured Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan), Litsch’s 2nd half has put him in position to be Toronto’s #2 starter. In ten starts, Litsch earned 5 wins, while holding opposing batters to a .213 BA and a 2.60 ERA. Litsch recently told reporters his goal was to reach 200 innings this season. If he reaches that goal, he should win 15 games and contribute solid ERA and WHIP numbers for your squad.
Chris Volstad – Florida Marlins
The 22 year old Volstad had an impressive rookie season after being called up from the minors in July. Making 14 starts, Volstad won 6 games with a 3.88 ERA. Pitching in the Florida rotation all year, he should build on his rookie success and contribute 10-15 wins with a good ERA. I wouldn’t count on him to be an ace, but he is a servicable starter at a very nice price late in your draft.
Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
The 2005 NL Cy Young award winner has battled arm injuries for much of the past 2 seasons. This spring, the 33 year old is looking sharp and gaining confidence on the mound. He and his coaches all say he is completely healthy, and they are hopeful that Carpenter will return the to the form that made him one of the top pitchers in baseball. He will be on a pitch count early in the season, but if he proves to be healthy, watch out for a big season from someone who is being somewhat forgotten about in drafts.
Buyer Beware
Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
Verlander is a classic case of a “name brand” player who is overvalued just for this reason. Verlander gets a reputation as a strike out guy because he throws so hard, but in reality his career high in Ks is only 183, and last year he got just 163. If Detroit has a bounce back year, Verlander will most likely revert to his former 17 game winning self, as opposed to the 17 loss version we saw last season. Even with the wins Verlander is overvalued, and his peripheral stats are damaging. It’s hard to swallow 200 innings of a 1.40 WHIP, and most teams will not be able compensate for that albatross of a stat.
Brett Myers – Philadelphia Phillies
See Justin Verlander. Myers only won 10 games playing for the World Champs last year, and his name recognition far exceeds his actual value. He is still someone worth owning on your team, but I can’t endorse drafting him before the final 2 rounds of a draft.
Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs
Dempster had a superb 2008 season. Moving from the closer role to the starting rotation, it was hard to know what to expect from him last season. Dempster exceeded all expectations with 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA. He threw over 200 innings, and was one of Chicago’s most dependable starters. I like Ryan Dempster, but anyone expecting him to repeat his dominant numbers from 2008 will be disappointed. I dare him to prove me wrong.
Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
Its true, I have Beckett listed as the #13 ranked starting pitcher going into the season. I am only labeling him a buyer beware candidate because Beckett is notoriously drafted too high and overvalued. His big game performances and his raw stuff make him a threat to throw a 15 strike out one-hitter on any given night, but Beckett lacks the focus to compete like that 30 times a year. When I’m drafting a guy to be my ace, that doesn’t really cut it for me.
Tags:
ace,
big board,
busts,
fantasy baseball,
MLB,
rankings,
Santana,
sleepers,
SP,
Starting Pitcher,
tim lincecum
