2010 FANTASY BASEBALL PREVIEW: FIRST BASE

First base in fantasy baseball is traditionally a position used for premier power hitters. Here’s what I wrote about first basemen last year:

The top 5 starters at this position are typically gone before the end of the 2nd round. When all is said and done, a starting first baseman that gets .300/30/100 will have a neutral to slightly negative effect on your overall stats. First base has to be the foundation of your power production.

Last year, only 25 major leaguers hit more than 30 home runs. Of those 25 players, 12 are eligible to play 1B in Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Last year, 26 players had 100 RBI or more with 13 of them being first basemen. This isn’t a position where being eligible at multiple positions is advantageous. There’s no reason to pick a versatile guy (like Jeff Kent 2 years ago) because they’re undoubtedly more valuable at any position other than 1B.

Not much has changed between 2009 and 2010. First base is still a position where you need to load up on power or risk having to find it elsewhere. Andy Behrens of Yahoo did a similar summary of 2009′s first basemen based on last year’s stats and he noted the following:

• Nineteen players with first base eligibility finished within the top 100 in the Yahoo! ranks in 2009
• Fourteen first basemen hit 30 homers, and another 16 hit at least 20
• Eleven first basemen finished with both 90 runs and 90 RBIs
• Five of last year’s top 10 batting averages were posted by first basemen
• In 2009, the average fantasy line for the top 30 first basemen looked like this: 85 R, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 4 SB, .285 AVG.

To put it bluntly, you’re screwed if you don’t have a good first baseman. That’s not to say that you can’t find a bargain. But attempting to wait on a sleeper first baseman can burn a fantasy owner worse than almost anything else. That’s why we’ve ranked the top first basemen along with noting potential sleepers and busts.

TOP 10

1) Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals

Pujols is the unquestioned number one first baseman and probably should be the unquestioned number one overall fantasy baseball player. The man who prefers not to be called “El Hombre” led major league baseball in both runs (124) and homers (47). While most people realize that Pujols is elite, a lot of them discount how much his runs and average will help your team. The guy has never finished with a batting average below .314 and last year’s .327 mark is tied for second “worst” of his career.

2) Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers

The guy had a massive 141 RBI last year which is hard to overlook. I was worried that he might not produce a ton of runs but that proved not to be the case as Fielder touched home 103 times last year. In his third full season, Fielder also set new highs in hits (177) and walks (110). His close-to-even BB:K ratio of 110:138 suggests that Prince is becoming a more patient hitter as well. With his power potential and his career .284 average, Fielder is my second-rated first baseman. He’s a good bet to lead the majors in bombs this year.

3) Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees

His spot in the most powerful offensive in lineup in baseball adds a ton to his value. Teixeira is the model of consistency and will likely put up a line that matches his 162 game average of 102 runs, 37 home runs, 122 RBI, and a .290 average. That makes Tex a great value pick at any point in the second round.

4) Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers

MigCab is one of the best young hitters in baseball. He’s actually a slightly downgraded version of Teixeira. His career 162-game average line is 98 runs, 33 homers, 117 RBI, and a .311 average. While Cabrera doesn’t walk much, he makes up for it in hits having amassed 177, 198, 195, 188, 180, and 198 in his six full major league seasons. While I rank Fielder and Teixeira ahead of Cabrera, the Tigers first baseman may have more potential. I wouldn’t pick Cabrera ahead of Teixeira — but I’d feel really good getting him shortly after Tex is picked.

5) Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Howard is a lot like Prince Fielder. The main issue with the Phillies’ first baseman is that he isn’t a great hitter. Before last season, Howard hit .313, .268, and .251 in his first three seasons in the majors. Last year, he hit .279 which is right in line with his career average. While his batting average may not be a huge risk, it probably won’t ever be an asset for Howard. He’s never struck out less than 181 times in a season — so I can’t see him touching .290 this season. If nothing else, Howard is a lock for huge homer and RBI totals in a powerful lineup.

6) Mark Reynolds – Arizona Diamondbacks

Mark Reynolds can definitely fill up a box score. The guy has immense power and speed to go with it. The problem is that he doesn’t get a ton of hits and strikes out all the time. Last year, Reynolds set the single-season strikeout record with 223 whiffs in 578 at bats. His K:BB ratio was a horrible 76:223. Still, Reynolds is an attractive pick because he only hurts you in average. You can expect Reynolds to rack up about 40 homers while stealing 15-ish bases. He’s very close to Ryan Howard in value as Howard’s extra homers and better average pretty much cancel out Reynolds’ steals.

7) Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds

Votto can flat out hit. He hit .319 in his last year in Double-A and .294 in Triple-A before hitting .321 when he was called up at the end of 2007. In his first full season in the majors, Votto hit .297 and last year he hit .322 with 151 hits even though he missed 31 games. Votto has the potential to approach mid-30′s homers and should hit around .300. He continues to improve as a hitter which is evident in his K:BB ratios in the majors (5:15, 59:102, 70:106). He’s very similar to Justin Morneau though I’d probably prefer Votto based on potential.

8) Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres

With Adrian Gonzalez, you pretty much know what you’re getting. The fact that he’s on a crap team and plays in a massive park take away from his value. But he still has a huge amount of power and is fairly consistent. He may be prone to slump in the middle of the season as July has been a poor month for him the past three years. In any case, you can pretty much bank on mid-30′s homers with about 105 RBI and 95 runs. His value goes up if he gets traded to a team with a more favorable home park.

9) Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins

Morneau is a prototypical cleanup hitter. The guy can rake but he suffers from inconsistency. The last five years his batting averages have been .239, .321, .271, .300, .274. So you never really know which Morneau is going to show up for the full season. Still, he’s had over 100 RBI each of the past four seasons. Morneau will certainly give you around 30 homers and 100 RBI but his average is a question mark. He also doesn’t score many runs having never topped 97 in a season.

10) Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Morales burst onto the scene last year with 34 homers and 108 RBI with a .306 average in 566 at bats. That may seem like an anomaly — but it’s not. Morales hit 21 bombs in 352 at bats as a 19 year-old playing for Industriales in the Cuban National Series. He also boasts a career .547 slugging % in the minor leagues with 85 bombs in 1774 minor league at bats. On top of that, Morales had 43 doubles last year which indicates he could even improve on his home run total. Adding to the goodness, Morales hit an insane .322 with 14 homers and 48 RBI in only 214 ABs hitting 5th in the order. He’ll start next season hitting 5th in between Hideki Matsui and Juan Rivera which means he has a great chance to drive in runs. Morales is probably the biggest “sleeper” among the first basemen that will obviously be drafted as starters. He could be better than both Justin Morneau and Adrian Gonzalez this season.

BEST OF THE REST

Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox

Kevin Youkilis is a far better baseball player than fantasy baseball player. His value is often overstated because he has a high OBP. It’s worth noting that Youk has only touched 100 runs and 100 RBI once each in his four major league seasons. Still, you can expect him to put up high-20′s homers with a shade under 100 runs and 100 RBI along with a batting average close to .300. But it’s also probable that he’ll be drafted as a third baseman anyway.

Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs

Derrek Lee proved last year that he still has a lot left in the tank. Lee’s power output had been down after suffering a wrist injury in 2006 with 22 homers in 2007 and 20 homers in 2008. But he managed to stroke 35 bombs in 2009 in less at bats than the previous two seasons. Lee probably won’t touch the 35 mark again but he’s still a solid first baseman. Consider that his averages were .317, .291, and .306 the past three years. On top of that, his 73 extra base hits were just outside of the top ten in the major leagues. Expect a little less than 30 homers with 100 RBI and a .290 average for Lee in 2010.

Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals

If you need power, this man can get that done for you. Dunn hasn’t hit less than 38 homers in a season since 2004. The problem is that he’s a career .249 hitter. His .267 mark last year was the best of his career. If you can handle the poor average, Dunn is a good pick to get around 40 homers and 100 RBI.

Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants

Sandoval’s first full campaign was a successful one. Kung Fu Panda hit a massive .330 with 25 homers and 90 RBI. Sandoval also showed a lot of pop in his last two years in the minors with a .597 slugging % in High-A and a .549 slugging % in Double-A. Even though he doesn’t walk much, the guy is a hit machine. The problem with Sandoval is that he plays for a poor team and he probably won’t score many runs. Sandoval could hit .300+ and may even swat more than 30 homers. But I’d feel safe expecting him to hit about .295 with 30 homers and 95 RBI.

Lance Berkman – Houston Astros

There’s no questioning Berkman’s skills as a baseball player. The problem is that he can’t stay healthy. Even though he only missed 26 games last year, he was banged up for a lot of the time. But it’s still impressive that he managed to hit. 274 after hitting .162 in April. With Berkman, you can expect just about 30 homers and a .290+ average. If he’s healthy all season, he should top 100 RBI and come close to 100 runs.

SLEEPERS

Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals

Billy Butler has the best chance to be the next first baseman to reach the .300, 30 homer, 100 RBI plateau. Even while playing with the putrid Royals last year, he managed to hit .301 with 21 homers and 93 RBI. Butler also had a massive second half in which he hit .314 with 13 homers and 55 RBI in 287 at bats. If you’re thinking about drafting Lance Berkman or Derrek Lee, it might be worth considering Butler instead.

Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays

Pena is like a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Amazingly, his K:BB ratio has worsened each of the past two seasons in Tampa. Still, he can be a cheap source of power. Just don’t expect him to hit above .250 and don’t be surprised if he loses at bats when he slumps.

Todd Helton – Colorado Rockies

Helton will always be a decent pick given his hitting ability. The guy sports a career .328 batting average. The downside of having Helton is that he sits fairly often and doesn’t have much power anymore. But Helton is a good value pick that could balance out the poor average of another player.

Nick Johnson – New York Yankees

If Johnson hits second for the Yankees, he should score a massive amount of runs. His career-high was 100 runs in 2006. If he can top 500 at bats (which he’s only done three times in his career), Johnson should easily establish a new career-high in runs. With a late round pick, you could get a guy that hits .280 with 110 runs, 20 homers, and 90 RBI.

Conor Jackson – Arizona Diamondbacks

While I wouldn’t suggest drafting Jackson, he’s a player to keep your eye on. Jackson is an good hitter as evidenced by his .281 career average and 189:211 K:BB ratio. He could put together a season similar to Nick Johnson’s while batting second for the Diamondbacks. Considering he has Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds hitting behind him, he’s sure to score a ton of runs. Jackson could easily put up a line that looks like 100 runs, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and a .290 average this season.

BUYER BEWARE

David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox

Last year, Ortiz made news by hitting only one home run in the first two months of the season. But his problems extend beyond just power. Ortiz only managed to hit above .250 in two months last season. He also had the highest strikeout total of his career. Ortiz’ 35 doubles in 2009 is the lowest total he’s ever had in a season he played more than 130 games. Whether that’s due to waning power or speed, it’s probably best to avoid picking Ortiz.

Jose Lopez – Seattle Mariners

Jose Lopez is great as a power hitting second baseman but he’s a less than ideal first base option. Lopez’ 25 homers last year was respectable but he scored a paltry 69 runs. That means he was driven in to score by a player other than himself only 44 times. Part of that is likely due to a lack of speed but it’s also a result of his horrendous OBP (career .303). While Lopez isn’t a horrible pick, he’ll probably help your team as much as Nick Johnson and Conor Jackson who will be available later in the draft.

Chris Davis – Texas Rangers

Davis has a ton of power but he has problems making contact. That’s why he got sent down in the middle of the season. Davis may have had the worst K:BB ratio in all of the majors with 24 walks compared to 150 strikeouts. With highly touted prospect Justin Smoak waiting in the wings, it’s probably not worth spending pick on Davis.

Michael Cuddyer – Minnesota Twins

If you had Cuddyer last year, you were probably very pleased. But it’ll be hard for him to duplicate that performance. Cuddyer has only topped a .440 slugging % twice in his career — in 2006 and 2009. Cuddyer is definitely a good option at first base. Just don’t consider him to be more than an average first baseman.