2010 FANTASY BASEBALL PREVIEW: STARTING PITCHER

In Fantasy Baseball, much like in “Actual Baseball”, starting pitching wins championships. Every team needs their stud hitters, but in order to win your league you must have solid starting pitching. Four of your ten fantasy categories will be won or lost with your starting pitchers (W, Ks, ERA, and WHIP). While having elite relievers with strong numbers at ERA and WHIP is definitely helpful, your starting pitchers will be using up the majority of your innings so their numbers will carry much more weight in those categories. This is what makes starting pitching so important. It is the backbone of your team. You have be careful not to get too far behind the pack in these categories, because after the first half it is very hard to make up ground in ERA and WHIP.

There are many ways for an owner to build a top flight pitching staff. Some like to draft a couple elite starters early, and search for bargains late in the draft and on the waiver wire. Others like to stockpile steady options and a hope to hit to hit it big with a sleeper to lead their staff, like Zack Greinke or Javier Vazquez did last season (both ranked in Yahoo’s top 10 overall). No matter how you go about it, you have to build a strong rotation if you want to have a chance to win your league. Luckily for you, the reader; I am going to help you make that happen.

TOP 25

1) Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

The 25 year old Lincecum now has two Cy Young awards and one possession arrest under his undersized belt. That being said, he is easily one of my favorite current MLB players. Lince finished second in the MLB with 261 Ks in 2009. Only Justin Verlander struck out more batters with 269, but he pitched more innings (Ks per 9 is a valuable stat to look out for). All of Lincecum’s stats improved from 2008 to 2009 except for wins. I expect to see more of the same Cy Young form from Lincecum in 2010, and he’ll probably get back to the 18-19 win range rather than the 15 he won last season.

2) Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals

I can’t believe it either. I was one of the lucky guys last year who drafted Zack Greinke and rode his unbelievable breakout season to glory. Last year I actually had him on this list at number 23, so I was expecting to see results from Greinke, but who would have expected a season like this? Greinke’s numbers were staggering. 242 Ks, 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. I tried to come up with reasons that would explain that these numbers aren’t “for real” when writing this post, but I couldn’t. Greinke was a dominant force in fantasy baseball last year, and he has turned a corner in his personal life that is allowing him to reach this amazing potential. If he wasn’t on the Royals, he could have been considered for my #1 ranking.

3) Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies

I shudder to think what Doc Halladay is going to do to the National League. He may be baseball’s true “best pitcher”, but his strike out totals have always been just a little bit lacking compared to other fantasy aces. I almost want to rate him higher because he’ll be facing a pitcher 2 or 3 times each start presumably upping his K totals, but let’s see it happen first. I do not believe Philadelphia’s hitter friendly ballpark will have any negative effect on his numbers and I have every reason to believe that he will be his usual dominant self, while racking up Ws for a contending club.

4) Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

Make way for King Felix. The Mariners young ace turned himself into a true stud in 2009 with a sparkling 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Seattle added Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee to their already defensive minded club, and are a team on the rise. King Felix could easily win another 19 games putting up similar peripheral stats. Don’t forget, Hernandez has been in the league a few years now, but we will be only 24 in April. The sky is truly the limit with for this kid.

5) Dan Haren – Arizona Diamondbacks

Here’s what I said about Haren in last year’s preview when I had him ranked at #6:

I have Haren rated a little bit higher than most, but his talent is undeniable. Since becoming a full time starter for Oakland in 2005, Haren has never had a higher WHIP since that season’s 1.21. His strike out totals have also increased each season in that same time span. Haren has averaged 15 wins per season during this span, so he should easily replicate that number as well.

Ditto for 2010.

6) CC Sabathia – New York Yankees

The Yankees’ ace is one of the most consistent starting pitchers in all of baseball. Expecting similar stats/win totals from 2009 would be a relatively safe bet. Yankees catcher Jorge Posada compared Sabathia favorably to former Yankee star David Wells. Girth aside, Posada noted that CC has the type of arm that can bounce back day after day, and year after year.Sabathia has been known to struggle in April, but once he gets rolling he’s one of the games best.

7) Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Carpenter is really, really good. Yahoo! had him ranked as the #10 fantasy player last season (5th starting pitcher) and anyone who took a flier on Carpenter after 2 years of injury issues was rewarded with vintage Chris Carpenter. The injuries still scare me, and he will be 35, but if Carpenter is right he will be a dominant force for the top of your rotation.

8 ) Johan Santana – New York Mets

Santana (along with most other Mets) was marred by an injury plagued 2009 season. Santana actually was one of the team’s few consistently healthy contributors until he was shut down late in the season with shoulder trouble. Johan was also not helped by his team’s inability to score, play defense behind him, or hold a lead after he left a game (sorry Mets fans, its true). I hesitate to say the days of Santana being the games #1 pitcher are over because I’ve been proven wrong before. However, the talent gap has definitely closed around him so you may want to go with a younger, healthier option when you’re taking your first pitcher. 

9) Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers

Speaking of being proven wrong, this is what I’ll call “Exhibit K”. I put Verlander in my “Buyer Beware” section going into last season and he took that dubious distinction to heart (I know you’re out there, Justin). Verlander went ahead and led the MLB with 269 Ks to go with 19 wins and 1.18 WHIP. Suffice to say, I am sorry, Justin. Verlander will go into the 2010 season at the age of 27 and right at the peak of most player’s primes. Verlander put up such good numbers last year that its hard to say he will improve upon those gaudy stats, but who’s to say he won’t? It won’t be me. Not this year.

10) Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright broke out in a big way in 2009. He was a consistent top flight starter for any lucky fantasy owner who took him late in their drafts. After winning 10 games in the first half, Wainwright followed with an unbelievable second half. He had 9 wins, 97 Ks, a 2.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Gotta love what WHIP. He turns 29 in August and plays for a legitimate contender. You will not regret taking the underrated Wainwright.

11) Cliff Lee – Seattle Mariners

I have not been the biggest Cliff Lee supporter in recent years. I was constantly waiting for him to fall back to earth and become the mediocre (to be nice) pitcher he was as recently as 2007. But after 2 great seasons and an excellent showing in the 2009 postseason, I am finally ready to give Lee his due credit. He is going to play in front of a very good defense in a spacious ballpark and should be a strong option for owners in 2010.

12) Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox

My knock on Lester going into last season was that he did not strike out enough batters. Jon Lester must read this blog, because he took the next step towards being an elite starter by striking out 73 more batters in 7 less innings. Lester also improved his numbers in the second half, which is a trend I like to look for in young pitchers. I don’t think Lester is getting the love he deserves, possibly due to fears that Boston will have trouble scoring runs. I won’t matter. If Lester is healthy he is a lock for at least 15 wins.

13) Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins

Josh Johnson is a big man, and of his, I am a big fan. The 6’7″ Johnson won 15 games for the Marlins while striking out 191 battters. His Ks per 9 increased over the second half, and I believe he will only get better. Johnson’s value may be limited because he plays for the Marlins, but I think Florida will be a little better than people think.

14) Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers

Yovanni Gallardo was counted on last season to ease the loss of CC Sabathia to the Yankees. Gallardo pitched 185 innings last year while striking out 204 batters. Very impressive strikeout totals if you ask me. Gallardo actually pitched much better in the first half of 2009, but as a 23 year old playing in his first full season fatigue could have been a factor. Gallardo has upside with his ERA/WHIP numbers, but his main attraction should be his ability to strike batters out.

15) Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants

Matt Cain tends to get overlooked due to his super-talented superstar teammate Tim Lincecum. This is a shame, but its good news for a smart owner out there somewhere. Cain is only 25 and had an elite year in terms of his ERA and WHIP (2.89 and 1.18, respectively). His strikeout totals leave a little bit to be desired, but he’s still going to reach the 175 range if he’s healthy, with his upside being somewhere around 195. This prevents him from making the top 10 on this list, but making up for it by pairing him with a reliever who racks up Ks will put your team in great shape.

16) Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers

Statistically, Kershaw had an astounding first full season but somehow only won 8 games. He struck out 185 batters in 171 innings with an ERA of 2.79 and WHIP of 1.23. Kershaw is only 22 years old and young pitchers of volatile to say the least, but his upside is somewhere near the Lincecum range.

17) Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves

Hanson is yet another young gun that has made the big leagues over the past few seasons. In his rookie year with Atlanta, he won 11 games and had a sub-3.00 ERA. His strikeout totals were impressive and Hanson improved with each month he spent in the majors. Like I said with Kershaw, young pitchers are dangerous, but Hanson’s upside is undeniable.

18) Jake Peavy – Chicago White Sox

Peavy was pitching extremely well for San Diego when he got hurt, missed the better part 3 months and was traded to Chicago. In the month May of Peavy threw 42 IP and struck out 52. His ERA was 2.13 with a .87 WHIP. These stats are insane. He came back to start 3 games for the White Sox and got 3 Ws, and gave up 3 total runs. Peavy looked like he was ready to pick up where he left off if his injury woes are behind him.

19) Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies

Ubaldo Jimenez is not one of your “brand name” ballplayers, but that shouldn’t deter you from counting on him to be a reliable fantasy option. Jimenez turned the corner in the second half of 2008 and has been one of baseball’s more consistent pitchers since. He has improved in each “half” since that time, and is only 26 years old. If this trend continues Jimenez will be a shrewd pick, especially if his lack of name value allows him to fall in your draft.

20) Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox

Beckett is going to be 30 this season, and in his “old” age he has finally settled down and become a consistent performer. His propensity to give up the long ball usually leaves him with an ERA higher than you or he would like, but his strike out totals are always solid. Beckett should no longer be considered an elite fantasy ace, but he is a good bet to repeat his excellent stats from last year.

21) Javier Vazquez – New York Yankees

Javy Vazquez is a tough guy to gauge coming into 2010. Considering that Vazquez is coming off the best season of his career, its hard to think that he’ll repeat those numbers. Coming to the Yankees will add some pressure, but he’ll be in a very strong rotation with bigger stories elsewhere. I think Vazquez will win his 15 games and put up 200+Ks. That’s why you took him in years past, and that’s why you’d take him now.

22) Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

One of the hottest names going into 2009, the young Dodger ace ended up slightly regressing in his third full season. This does not concern me, as Billingsly is only 25 and already has 3 years of experience. If he gets back on track he will be another 15 win 200 K pitcher.

23) Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins

Nolasco had a wildly inconsistent 2009. After getting completely lit up in April and May, Nolasco turned his season around in June and dominated the summer months. After the All-Star break Nolasco fanned 105 batters in 94+ innings. Nolasco is only 27, so if he can build on his second half and gain some consistency he could be a great addition to your staff.

24) Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels was in my top 5 last year, but showed some really bad signs of regression in 2009. The ace of the 2008 champion Phillies saw his ERA rise a full run while his wins and strike outs decreased. He complained that he wanted the season to end at one point, and was beat up badly in the playoffs. Hamels could bounce back, but I’m not sure how high his ceiling really is anymore.

25) Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
The 27 year old Weaver has improved his WHIP and his opposing batting average over each of the past 3 seasons. LA always fields solid team so that should allow Weaver to get to about 15 wins if healthy. He’s still young enough to be improving and have upside, so I like him better than someone like former teammate John Lackey. He will be counted on as the ace of the Angels rotation, but fantasy owners should consider him a strong #2 starter.

Sleepers

Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
Liriano absolutely tore up winter ball and has said that feels as good as he did in 2006 (aka when he was a stud). If this is true, and his arm troubles are truly behind him Liriano has the potential to be as good as any pitcher in the AL.

Rick Porcello – Detroit Tigers
Porcello was inconsistent last year, but he showed some serious flashes of a talented pitcher. After the All-Star break Porcello started 15 games earning a 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. If Porcello follows the trend that other recent high round picks have set before him, he will build on his rookie experience and turn into a great option.

Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks
All about health here. If Webb regains his pre-injury form and is able to start the season on-time he will be a great value. If its getting late in the draft any many of the top flight pitchers are off the board Webb might be worth a shot because of his high ceiling.

Buyer Beware

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
My buyer beware tag for Hamels is basically my justification of putting Hamels where I did in the top 25. He is rated by most in the top 15, but I think his name value is inflating his status. I am worried about him as an injury risk, and he is a player I’m avoiding this season.

Wandy Rodriguez – Houston Astros
Wandy Rodriguez finally lived up to his ability in 2009 after showing flashes of brilliance over the course of the past 3 or 4 seasons.  Unfortunately for Rodriguez, he is 31 years old and plays for a bad Astros team. I just don’t think that Wandy discovered how to pitch at the age of 30, and I see him frustrating owners who expect him to repeat his performance from last season.

Aroldis Chapman – Cincinnati Reds
Chapman may be taken in some drafts but don’t waste a pick on him. He is very raw, and probably won’t make the major league roster. Check back in 2011. Or 2012.

Joel Piniero – Los Angeles Angels
I worry that Piniero may be a product of Dave Duncan tutelage. He had a career year last season, but a move to the AL and a possible return to earth (5.15 ERA in 2008) could make him a poor investment.