The only monster here is the gambling monster that has enslaved your mother! I call him Gamblor, and it’s time to snatch your mother from his neon claws! — Homer Simpson
Unfortunately, sports betting is not legal where I live. Perhaps I could try a site like BetUS but, instead, I just make hypothetical wagers. Is that believable? In any case, I’ve been doing pretty well in my bets this year. But it turns out it might not be my wagering skill that’s winning me money.
Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Journal-Review did some digging and found out that sports books are suffering from the horrible performances of certain NFL teams. Jack Kornegay, who runs the Hilton sports book, told Youmans that he “can’t remember an NFL season with this many bad team.” If you follow the NFL, you know that the Browns, Bucs, Lions, Skins, Rams, Raiders, and Chiefs have a very hard time winning. The article notes that Tampa, St. Louis, and Cleveland have only covered the spread six out of 21 games.
After Sunday, the favorites in NFL games were a whopping 5-0-1. The problem with that? Bookies don’t make money by betting against you. They make money by accurate setting the margin of victory so that there’s action on equal sides. A bet on either side of the line has a vig (i.e. the bookie’s take) that’s typically between 10-20% for each game. Example: you bet $10 on the Patriots but you can only win $9.09 with a 10% vig. Unfortunately for the sports books, there’s no way to cover their losses with the vig if everybody bets on the favorites and wins. Kornegay revealed that 90% of straight bets made on the Indianapolis/St. Louis game were placed on the Colts.
It’s likely that we’ll start seeing ridiculous 20-point spreads that are prevalent in college football. Still, my wagering strategy is unlikely to change. I prefer to leverage underdogs in parlays and spread the risk by diversifying my bets. With this approach, I usually lose small and occasionally win big. Below is a sample of my week 7 wagers. Yes, I would have won or pushed all but one bet had the Vikings not CHOKED. Note: does not include my two college football picks of Texas -12.5 @ Mizzou and Oregon State +21 @ USC. Both won. No big deal.
WEEK 7 WAGERS
- ATL W @ DAL, NYJ -6.5 @ OAK
- SD -6.5 @ KC
- MIN W @ PIT
- MIN W @ PIT, SF W @ HOU
- MIN W @ PIT, SF +3 @ HOU, NYJ -6.5 @ OAK, ARI +7 @ NYG
- CIN -1.5 vs. CHI, GB -8 @ CLE, SF +3 @ HOU
- MIN W @ PIT, ARI W @ NYG
- SD -6 @ KC, NO -7 @ MIA
Tags: betting, casino, football, gambling, las vegas, NFL, sports bet, sports book, wagering
