2009 MLB Awards Selection (Pre-Season)

In our continuing quest to cover as many angles of the upcoming MLB season as possible, we here at the Screw have decided to offer readers a look behind the curtain on who we like to win the major awards in 2009 and why (besides hometown bias).

National League

Arizona's Dan Haren

Rookie of the Year

Chris

Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants

Sandoval burst onto the scene last season in August and September hitting .345 in 141 ABs for the Giants. A switch-hitting, 22 year old catcher / corner infielder, Pablo figures to play prominently into the Giants plans this season as their opening day 3rd baseman. Sandoval will get some time behind the plate as well, as he spelled Bengie Molina last season in 11 of the 45 games he appeared in but the bulk of his time will come in the field keeping him fresh and getting him plenty of ABs. If Sandoval displays near the amount of promise he did as a late season call-up, he’ll be sure to be accepting this award come November.

The OCD

Kenshin Kawakami - Atlanta Braves

The NL is a little more willing to hand the ROY to a starting pitcher.  Four NL starters have been named Rookie of the Year in the past 20 years.  I really wanted to pick Maybin — but I don’t think he’ll be able to stay above .280.  I’m going to go out on a very weak, possibly rotten, limb and say that Kenshin Kawakami will win the NL Rookie of the Year.  Last year, teammate Jair Jurrjens placed 3rd in NL ROY voting.  Unfortunately for him, nobody was beating Geovany Soto last year.  In my opinion, Kawakami can put up a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Jurrjens and fellow countryman Hiroki Kuroda.  Over the past 5 seasons, Kawakami has put up 3.12 ERA (his ERA was a microscopic 2.50 in 2008) in 872.1 IP.  The Japanese import will benefit from playing in a pitcher’s park with a fairly good lineup behind him.  At the same time, he’ll have professional experience combined with the league’s unfamiliarity to his pitches and style.  He might tail off at the end of the year as he has only topped 180 IP in 4 of his 10 professional season (see: Edinson Volquez 2008 and his 4.60 second half ERA).  However, I think Kawakami will be among the top vote-getters for NL ROY if he can reach 15 wins and keep his ERA below 3.60.

John

Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

Maybin arrived in Florida in the Miguel Cabrera deal as a 5-tool, “can’t miss” centerfield prospect. Cameron Maybin had an 8 game cup of tea with the Major League team in 2008, and is ready to take on a full time role with the team in 2009. The Marlins are plannnig to split leadoff at bats between Maybin and 3B Emilio Bonifacio, but he should be an important cog in Florida’s offense no matter where he hits in the order.

Cy Young

Chris

Johan Santana – New York Mets

I’m a Mets fan, so this pick should come as no surprise. However, there is quite a bit of statistical evidence to back up this claim. Santana led the MAJORS in ERA last season during his first year in the National League. While his strikeout numbers were down, he still topped 200 Ks for the 5th consecutive season. Santana also managed to win 16 games, despite getting a Loss or No Decision in a staggering 10 games where he allowed 2 runs or less. Blame the inconsistent offense and the Mets bullpen for those, and they’ll both improve this year – especially the Mets ‘pen after adding JJ Putz and K-Rod in the offseason.

The OCD

Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

Lince is quite amazing.  However, he’s not very physically gifted.  I would be a little bit concerned that a disruption in his mechanics could derail his Cy Young campaign.  That being said, I think Lince may be the best pitcher in the majors.  He has gawdy strikeout totals and his prospective win total is probably the only factor holding him back.  His ERA is likely to rise a tad since he put up a ridiculous 2.62 last year.  However, he’s likely to be in the top 3 vote-getters in any case and has a good shot at winning as long as he posts an ERA around 3.00 or lower.

John

Dan Haren – Arizona Diamondbacks

I think Tim Lincecum is unbelievable, but I just can’t pick the youngster to win back-to-back Cy Young awards. The odds are just not in his favor. Since Randy Johnson won his 4 consecutive Cy Youngs, 6 different NL pitchers have won the award (Gagne, Clemens, Carpenter, Webb, Peavy, Lincecum). That being the case, I’m going with the best guy who hasn’t won one, Dan Haren (Note: Cole Hamels’ elbow has me concerned). Haren’s first year in the NL was a successful one. 16 Wins and 206 Ks with a 3.33 ERA are certainly numbers befitting of an ace. If Haren settles further into his new league, I expect his win totals and ERA to improve. He’s not the most popular choice, but I believe Haren will have a dynamite season.

Most Valuable Player

Chris

David Wright – New York Mets

Yep, more Mets bias. Wright has finished 9th, 4th, and 7th in the last 3 MVP races. You could argue that had the Mets not collapsed in the past two seasons (particularly 2007 when Wright was the only one hitting down the stretch) that Wright could be polishing an MVP trophy in a clever video game ad by now. Wright has won two consecutive Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. He set career highs in HR, RBI and Runs Scored last season and he just turned 26 in December. We’re about to enter David Wright’s prime and it begins with an MVP award in 2009.

The OCD

Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals

This may seem like a cop out, but I think Albert Pujols is the best hitter of this generation.  He’s one of the few hitters that can legitimately challenge for the triple crown — except for the fact that Ryan Howard won’t let him.  I could write a lot about his ability to hit and such, but we’ve all seen that before.  I’ll keep it simple by saying that Pujols has a career 1049 OPS with his career high (1115) coming last year.  If he doesn’t win, it’ll be because he goes down… or Ryan Howard hits .310.  Pujols has played eight major league seasons and has won the MVP or been the runner up FIVE times.

John

Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers

This man is ready to step up to the next level and win himself an MVP. He has already proven to be one of the NL’s top hitters with 71 HRs and 203 RBI in his first 264 games. Braun is just 25 years old, and he plays for a talented young Milwaukee team. Braun finished 3rd in the MVP voting last season. If he churns out another big year and the Brewers can make some noise again in the NL Central,
Braun will be a serious contender for the award.

American League

Rookie of the Year

Chris

David Price – Tampa Bay Rays

If there’s one thing I love, it’s hype – and David Price has come with his share and then some. In fact, there hasn’t been a Durham Bulls pitcher with this much hype since Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh in 1988. Price was the #1 pick in the 2007 entry draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. He was signed in August 2007 and 13 months later he made his first Major League start. Just after his 23rd birthday. Price is going to be on the Evan Longoria / Matt Wieters plan this season, which means you won’t see him for the first 6 weeks unless you’re attending games in Durham. Price showed the world last year he’s ready for the bigs during the Rays unbelievable post-season run. I mean a 23 year old closing playoff games says something about how special he is and why I like him to take home the hardware this season.

The OCD

Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays

In the last 20 years, only 4 pitchers have been named AL Rookie of the Year.  Of those four, two were starters (Verlander, Gregg Olson) and two were relievers (Sasaki, Street).  So it’s clearly more probable that a hitter will be named AL ROY.  I’d love to pick Elvis Andrus, but I don’t think he’ll be able to win based on leather alone.  Even so, the AL has had some light hitters take home the award in the last 10 years including: Pedroia, Bobby Crosby, and Angel Berroa.  But nestled in that list of recent winners we see the name of one Eric Hinske.  Mr. Hinske produced his personal best season as a rookie on the Jays with 24 homers and 84 RBI.  Coincidentally, I see Travis Snider putting up a comparable line.  Snider started last season in high A ball, was promptly promoted, and then saw his average drop in a full season in Dunedin (.262 in 362 ABs).  However, Snider topped the .300 mark in stops at AAA and with the Jays.  In those 137 ABs, he had 44 hits, 11 doubles, and 4 homers.  Snider probably won’t keep his average above .300, but he may be able to keep it in the .280-.290 range (with very few walks).  His minor league slugging was .513 (compared to Hinske’s .511), so I see him hitting between 19 and 24 bombs.  As long as he hits for power, he should have a shot at the hardware. Perhaps more impressive than his ability to hit for average or power is his level of maturity.  Blue Jays coaches have been raving about his focus and “veteran answers”, and I believe that will help him this season.

John

Matt Weiters – Baltimore Orioles

Weiters hit 27 bombs in the minor leagues last season on his way to becoming 2008’s Minor League Player of the Year. Scouts have compared his bat to last year’s AL ROY Evan Longoria, and current Minnesota backstop Joe Mauer but with more power. He should arrive in the big leagues in late May, once he does he should be an impressive young player to watch.

Cy Young

Chris

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

Remember 3 paragraphs ago when I wrote all about David Price and how he’s so young and going to be great? Well, Price could be King Felix’s dad. Ok, not really but the King is 8 months younger than David Price! He’s also a full two years younger than Tim Lincecum, but I digress. Hernandez’ ERA has gone down the past 3 seasons, resting at an appealing 3.45 for the American League. I’m going out on a limb picking him here, because he plays for a bad team with an uncertain closer situation after trading JJ Putz to the Mets in the off-season but I think this is the year for the King to announce his reign. Last year, the Giants were awful, had a closer with a 4.50+ ERA but Lincecum managed to win 18 games. I think Felix follows this path and becomes the youngest Cy Young Award winner since Doctor K.

The OCD

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Roy “Doc” Halladay is in the Cy Young discussion nearly every year.  Had it not been for Cliff Lee’s emergence/over-performance/miracle, Big Roy would have taken home his second career Cy Young last year.  Unfortunately, CLee went 22-3 and made everybody overlook Halladay’s 20 win season with a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 206 K’s in 246 IP.  Simply put, Halladay has ridiculous career numbers.  Since 2001, his ERA has only topped 3.25 twice and he’s only registered a WHIP above 1.20 twice.  One factor that might contribute negatively to his effort is a shaky bullpen with BJ Ryan in limbo and Scott Downs next-in-line.  However, the biggest threat to Halladay’s Cy Young campaign is his reputation as an innings eater (or Carl Pavano going 25-1).  His workload defies logic (220+ IP in 5 of the past 7 seasons) though it doesn’t seem to take a toll on him.  Halladay is a certified ace and will be in a Cy Young frontrunner as long as he can stay healthy and get to 200+ IP.

John

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Halladay won the AL Cy Young in 2003 when he won 22 games. Since then he has consistently been near the top of the Cy Young voting, as well as the rankings in ERA and Innings Pitched. Cliff Lee took the world by surprise with his 2008 campaign, and I don’t know if he can reach replicate that production. CC Sabathia will have some adjusting to do in New York. I think this year Halladay can finally win his 2nd Cy Young award.

Most Valuable Player

Chris

BJ Upton – Tampa Bay Rays

Boss Man. After hitting 9 HRs in 531 ABs during the regular season, Melvin Emmanuel Upton launched 7 bombs in only 66 post-season ABs. He has the tools to be an absolutely dominant offensive player. Combine that with the fact that he’s transformed himself from an atrocious infield defender into one of the premier defensive outfielders in the game. Watch him track a fly ball down, it’s beautiful. I’m serious. Combine those tools with a team loaded with talent in the field and on the mound and I think it all adds up to the eldest Upton brother claiming his first MVP award.

The OCD

Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

I couldn’t bring myself to pick Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera, so I opted to go out on a limb with Quentin.  I wanted to pick ARod to be more controversial, but realized it would be impossible for him to win. Last year, Quentin jacked 36 bombs and drove in 100 RBI in only 480 at-bats.  That’s exactly the season that I had in mind for ARod and it was only good for 5th in MVP voting.  I like Quentin because he still has the potential to improve.  In his horrible 2007 half-season, he K’d 54 times while only walking 18 times.  Last year, he walked 66 times compared to 80 strikeouts.  He was a .312 hitter in the minors and his K/BB ratio was pretty much even.  I’m not positive that he’ll hit 40 homers this year, but he should drive in a ton of runs — which is usually a big part of the MVP race.  No matter how wrong I am on this one… I can’t possibly be more wrong than Peter Gammon was when he picked Bobby Crosby a few years ago.

John

Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees

As proved by last year’s winner, Dustin Pedroia, there is clearly a thin pool at the top of the list for prospective MVP candidates. A-Rod’s hip injury makes the pool that much thinner. Spending a full season in the AL for the first time in 3 seasons, Mark Teixeira seems genuinely unfazed by the white hot NY spotlight so far. With Alex Rodriguez out for probably the first month of the season, Teixeira has some big shoes to fill as the primary run producer in the Yankees lineup. I believe that A-Rod’s abscence will lead to Teixeira stepping up in a big way, and having that mentality carry him through a very productive season.

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