Strength in Numbers: 9 Ways the 2009 Mets Can Reach October

Will the Mets light up victory cigars in 2009?

As I write this, I have just witnessed the New York Mets get two-hit by the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of a four-game set at Citi Field to fall to 35-34, three losses back of the first-place Philadelphia Phillies.

One year ago tonight, the Mets were 37-39 and just getting the feel of things in their first week under new manager Jerry Manuel.  They have played 162 games for Gangsta Jerry and have racked up 90 wins in that span.

It took 92 wins to win the NL East last season and I’m here to tell you by the numbers why the Mets can overcome some earlier season adversity to top that and advance to the postseason this year. Each number relates to the appropriate player(s) or statistic.

1. Luis Castillo – I know what you’re thinking… “he’s leading with Luis Castillo?” Trust me, it’ll make sense. In 2007, during the Mets collapse, Castillo was not to blame for any of it. In fact, he had an .822 OPS (100 points higher than his career average) during September ’07. Last year, Luis disappeared for a majority of the year to the point where he was replaced by Ramon  Martinez down the stretch. Despite his costly error in the Subway Series, Castillo has for the most part looked rejuvenated and his championship experience will come into play as the Mets move to turn this ship around.
2. Daniel Murphy – Murphy needs to hit second in this lineup. In 97 ABs in the 2 hole, Murphy is hitting .289. Everywhere else, he’s hitting .210 in 100 ABs. Murphy takes pitches to allow the lead off hitter to run and can control the bat well enough for hit & run opportunities. He was good enough to earn that spot coming out of the spring, and his struggles have come from infrequent playing time and an uncertain spot in the order. In this case, stability will breed success from the young Murphy.
3. Double Plays – The Mets are third in the National League in GIDPs with 62. What this means is that despite being second in the NL in team batting average, on base percentage and even leading the league in average with runners in scoring position… they kill a TON of rallies with “twin killings,” a function of the Mets lack of power and high ground ball rate (2^nd highest in the NL at 0.99 ground balls to fly balls).
4. Carlos Delgado – In 63 of the Mets 69 games, Delgado, Gary Sheffield or David Wright have hit cleanup. The three have combined for 8 HR, 49RBI and 45 R… admirable numbers especially Sheffield’s contributions. However, the most effective of the three is Delgado, who in 91 games since last year’s All-Star Break has hit .301 with 25 HRs and 86 RBI. Getting him back from his hip injury will go a long way towards helping the power drought that has struck the Mets in 2009.
5. David Wright – Sports #5 on his back and most productive hitting fifth in the order. Wright has spent 34 games hitting 5^th and produced three of his four HRs and driving in 26 runs. In Wright’s other 34 games, he has hit either third or fourth and driven in only 13 runs. Wright has also amassed 13 of his 18 steals (2^nd in the NL) while hitting 5^th.
6. Jose Reyes – Bet you thought I was going to use him for #7. Nope. Reyes plays shortstop, defensively referred to as 6 in your scorecards. With 232 runs scored and 134 SBs in 2007-08, Reyes is the clearly most important player in the Mets lineup. He’s the catalyst. The “straw that stirs the drink”. Besides this, it allows Alex Cora to go back to pinch-hitter and part-time second baseman, allowing Castillo’s legs to stay fresh down the stretch.
7. Wins vs. the Phillies in the last 11 games – July 3,4,5 in Philadelphia. August 21-24 in New York and September 11-13 in Philadelphia (including a double dip on the 13^th). These games are where the division will be decided.
8. The 8^th Inning issue – First it was JJ Putz and ineffectiveness (5.22 ERA, 19 BB in 29.1 IP) and a bone spur pushed him to the DL. Then it was Bobby Parnell, who has hit the rookie wall early and seen his ERA rise to about 5 and confidence fall to almost zero. Sean Green’s hot streak has recently ended with 3 ER in his last 2 appearances… so who bridges the gap to K-Rod? Perhaps a late season return from Billy Wagner will give the bullpen the boost it needs.
9. September – the ninth month of the year. The site of the collapses of 2007 and (to a lesser extent) 2008. Success in this month is non-negotiable if you want to play in October.

Should the Mets get healthy and successfully negotiate these issues, not only will a playoff berth be in their sights, but they’ll have a relatively fresh team with bench players who received a ton of ABs and playing time during the season.

Note: While I like John Maine a lot and think it will be nice to get him back, I don’t view him as a necessary part to the success of this team. I also prefer to keep Oliver Perez away as long as possible.

Tags: alex cora, carlos delgado, daniel murphy, david wright, jerry manuel, jj putz, jose reyes, luis castillo, mets, ramon martinez