Colt McCoy and the Texas offense didn’t get much done on Saturday night. But it was enough to earn an invite to the BCS National Championship Game. The Longhorns will face an Alabama squad that may be peaking after stomping on Florida this weekend.
Many pundits will claim that this is just more of the “BCS mess” but that’s simply hyperbole. In the preseason poll, Texas was slotted at #2 and Alabama came in at #5. Even then it seemed as if the national championship matchup could end up being the Big 12 winner against the SEC winner with Florida at #1 and Oklahoma at #3.
The “snubbed” teams including Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati didn’t even crack the top 10 in the preseason. Boise State’s best game was its first game. Unfortunately, they beat Oregon early in the season and the game was overshadowed by LeGarrette Blount’s punch. Could Boise State compete with Texas or Alabama? Probably. But their schedule didn’t even come close to earning them a bid for the big game. You could also argue for Cincinnati but there isn’t much there. Cincy’s best three games were against Oregon State, South Florida, and West Virginia. The Beavers were nothing more than a potential spoiler. South Florida was good but not great while West Virginia wasn’t a big enough win to overtake Texas or Alabama. The success of Zach Collaros may have detracted from the luster of their undefeated season as well. An unheralded 3-star recruit should not be able to pile up stats during the meat of the conference schedule. TCU may deserve a shot but they’re being overrated because they peaked late in the season. It’s doubtful that anybody would be whispering they should be headed to the Rose Bowl if their 14-10 win over Clemson or 20-17 victory over Air Force had occurred this past week. However, in November they beat Utah and blew out three poor opponents which gave them a lot of momentum.
Bitterness aside, this is a great pairing for the title game. Both teams have as close to NFL-caliber defenses as you can get in college football. Texas seems to have the advantage in the matchups — primarily when the Alabama offense faces the Texas defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a very similar game to the Big 12 Championship with Alabama getting little on offense. Texas boasts the best rushing defense in the nation and it’s doubtful that Greg McElroy will light them up through the air. However, Bama has a great chance to win if Saban can create the ideal offensive gameplan. If the Tide get off to a fast start, they could easily cruise to victory. The game may even come down to the special teams matchup. Both teams have explosive return men in Javier Arenas and Jordan Shipley (plus a few others). Coincidentally, kickers Hunter Lawrence and Leigh Tiffin are 1-2 in the nation in total points.
If you ask me (and you may not have), I say Texas comes out on top — but barely. My gut says that Greg McElroy won’t be able to get much going and Bama rides Mark Ingram. Texas won’t get much on offense either and the score will ultimately be decided by a field goal or non-offensive touchdown. Let’s say 23-20 Texas. Now that you have our winner, here are the storylines that will be repeated ad nauseam for the next month:
Six Degrees of Saban
Both Will Muschamp (Texas defensive coordinator) and Major Applewhite (Texas running backs coach) have worked with Nick Saban. Muschamp teamed with Saban at LSU and with the Miami Dolphins while Major Applewhite was Saban’s OC at Alabama as recently as 2007. Applewhite chose the Texas running backs coach job over the Alabama OC job and potential head coaching jobs elsewhere.
Southlake State of Mind
Texas starting running back Tre’ Newton and Alabama starting quarterback Greg McElroy both played together in high school. They won a state championship at Southlake Carroll in 2005. Their coach at the time, Todd Dodge, is now the head man at the North Texas.
Recruit Me Not
In 2006, Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy was the 43rd ranked recruit in the state of Texas. He wasn’t offered a scholarship to Texas who had already locked up Jevan Snead (#8 recruit in Texas) and Colt McCoy (#73). McElroy defeated Jevan Snead and the Ole Miss Rebels 22-3 earlier in the season. Now, he’s gunning for McCoy.
Julio Who?
Other than Mark Ingram, wide receiver Julio Jones is clearly Alabama’s most dangerous playmaker. He’ll likely draw (double?) coverage from either Aaron Williams or Chykie Brown. Texas has had great pass coverage all season and it would be surprising to see Jones break out. That could open the door for WR Marquis Maze who had 5 catches for 96 yards against Florida last week. Bama exploited the fact that Maze often matched up with a linebacker.
Working the Corner(s)
Alabama has two starting cornerbacks (Kareem Jackson, Javier Arenas) that should make it in the NFL. They’ll face a tough matchup against the Longhorns’ big and deep receiving corps. Jordan Shipley (6-0, 190) is Texas’ #1 receiver, but it’s likely the Horns will go to Malcolm Williams (6-3, 220) and Dan Buckner (6-4, 215) early and often. Buckner usually plays out of a flex tight end spot, so it’ll be interesting to see if Alabama puts a linebacker or a defensive back on him. Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis might utilize more shotgun spread formations to neutralize Alabama’s top defensive backs and defensive tackle Terrence Cody.
Run This Town
The Longhorns have had trouble running the ball all season. They seem to be at their best when McCoy is running option read plays that allow him to either hand it off to the back or isolate backside defenders by carrying the ball himself. It will be interesting to see how they match up against a stout Alabama defense that includes behemoth DT Terrence Cody. Conversely, Texas has the #1 ranked rush defense in the nation and allows only 31.3 yards per game. Mark Ingram may have a tough time maneuvering through Texas’ monster defensive line that has a ton of depth.
Feeling a Draft
A number of soon-to-be NFLers will get (potentially) their last chance to impress NFL brass. Potential 2010 first day picks include: Colt McCoy (QB), Adam Ulatoski (OT), Sergio Kindle (DE/OLB), Roddrick Muckelroy (OLB), Earl Thomas (S), Jordan Shipley (WR), Terrence Cody (DT), Rolando McClain (ILB), Javier Arenas (DB), Kareem Jackson (DB), and Mike Johnson (G). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rolando McClain put forth an effort that made him a top 10 overall pick in April.
Crime & Punishment
Texas will be without D.J. Monroe and Marcus Davis for the game. With a over a month until the matchup (including the holidays and New Years), there could be even more disciplinary action before the big game. Florida’s Carlos Dunlap was suspended for the SEC Championship which may have given the Tide a big boost.
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