dustin pedroia Archive

There is a consensus among fantasy baseball players that Second Base has been one of the historically weak positions in terms of fantasy production. Similar to the period of time in the late ’90s when A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar changed the standards of what a Short Stop could do offensively, Second Basemen are experiencing a similar renaissance. While the position still does not offer the depth of talent you can find in the Outfield or First Base, some of fantasy’s top performers are emerging at second. Based on draft averages, there are four second basemen that are being taken in the top 25, and 10 in the top 100. Be careful for a “Second Base run” similar to a closer run, as the top talent will be taken in first 3 rounds of the draft, and the second tier talent all rate very similarly in projected value. In order to make your decision a little bit easier on draft day, here is our breakdown of what you can expect from fantasy second basemen in 2009.

Philly's Chase Utley is our #1 choice for Second Basemen

TOP TEN

1. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies

There are certainly differing opinions as to who the #1 fantasy second baseman is, as illustrated here by our own Chris Mangan. What I like about Utley, is that barring injury he is a bonafide LOCK to hit .300 with at least 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and 100 runs. Consider that only 10 players in the major leagues hit 30-100-100 last season, and then consider that I called those numbers a lock. Utley will also chip in in the steals department with about 15 being a reasonable expectation. The Phillies are the defending World Champs, they are going to score a lot of runs in that bandbox of a ballpark, and Utley is hitting in the middle of an impressive lineup. Considering all these facts, its safe to say Utley can be counted on for elite fantasy numbers.

2. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers

Ian Kinsler has a ton of potential. He is 27 yeas old (4 years younger than Utley), and was a fantasy monster during the first half of 2008 with 14 HRs and 23 steals while hitting .337 in 93 games. He was derailed by injuries missing much of August and all of September. Kinsler definitely has the potential to take over as the #1 second baseman this season, but for now I am going with the wise words of Ric Flair “To be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man (WOOOOO)”.

3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox

We can start by reminding everyone that Dustin Pedroia is this year’s reigning AL MVP. Pedroia hit .326 last year while scoring 118 runs, with 17 HRs, 83 RBIs and 20 steals. Pedroia turns 26 in August, and is in the prime of his career. What keeps him at #3, is that I am not sure how high his ceiling is. When thinking solely about fantasy value, I find it hard to see Pedroia increasing his power numbers by much. I believe this will be the only thing that limits his value. I shudder to even make the comparison, but Pedroia’s best years are going to be something comparable to Derek Jeter’s best years.

4. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore seems to be developing a core, and they have a lineup that includes Roberts, budding star Nick Markakis, and consistent producer Aubrey Huff. With Roberts hitting at the top of the lineup, he should maintain his reputation as the most prolific base stealer at the position, as well as a consistent source of runs. In the simplest terms, draft Roberts if you are looking for a huge boost in your steals category.

5. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Phillips followed up an incredible 30-30 2007 season with a solid, but disappointing stats in ‘08. He was being taken as high as the second round going in to ‘08, and given that draft position, his .261 BA, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 80 R and 23 SBs was just not good enough. I am rating Phillips as my #5 second baseman, because I think we can expect him to produce numbers somewhere in between his superb 2007 and his comparatively weak 2008.

6. Dan Uggla – Florida Marlins

Uggla’s year took a step downturn the moment he stepped onto the field for the 2008 All-Star game. His horrid performance carried over into his season, and he followed up his first half numbers – .286 BA, 23 HR, 59 RBIs – with a putrid second half – .226 BA, 9 HR, 33 RBIs. Uggla is a two-time All-Star, and is 29 years old. If he can recapture the magic of his first half in 2008, he will be a major steal for a fantasy owner taking him in the middle rounds. However, by the time the season is over, I suspect his 2009 totals will be pretty similar to his 2008 totals.

7. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees

Don’t ya know? If you remove Cano’s horrid April numbers (16 Hits in 106 ABs) from his totals, Robbie hit a pretty nice .297 on the year. This number is much closer to what we have come to expect from Cano. He will be 27 years old during the 2009 season, and entering the prime of his career. Cano has yet to produce a 20 HR season, but with Alex Rodriguez out for the beginning part of the year he will have a chance to earn himself a permanent spot in the middle of the order. This would give him a greater chance to both drive in, and score runs. Cano will definitely improve upon his 2008 numbers, but it is difficult to gauge how much.

8. Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox

Ramirez hit .290 with 21 HR and 13 SBs last season as a rookie. He is eligible at both SS and 2B, so there is some added value there as well. He only played 130 games last season, so a 20-20 year for Ramirez is well within reach. If you don’t land one of the “name brand” second basemen above, look no further than Ramirez for a steady producer for one of your middle infield spots.

9. Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels

Figgins has long tantalized fantasy owners with his speed and versatility. It is important to note that in the past 2 seasons, Figgins has only played in 116 and 115 games. However, he still managed to steal 41 in ‘07 and 34 in ‘08. Figgins will definitely get you your steals, but his durability and inconsistent plate production over the past few years are of concern.

10. Jose Lopez – Seattle Mariners

Quick: which 2B led the AL in RBIs in 2008? If you guessed Jose Lopez, you probably read the line directly above this sentence. Lopez in only 25 years old, and has already proven himself to be a capable run producer in the middle of Seattle’s lineup. If Lopez progresses, he is a candidate to reach 20 HR and 100 RBIs with a BA close to .300.

SLEEPERS

Howie Kendrick is looking to break out in '09

Howie Kendrick – Los Angeles Angels

The 25 year old Kendrick is one of Los Angeles’ best young talents. In limited action over the course of the past 3 seasons, Kendrick has hit .306. Kendrick has battled wrist injuries and has had trouble staying in the lineup. If the youngster can stay healhty over the course of a full season, you can expect an average above .300 with around 10-15 HRs and 20 steals. Kendrick isn’t a draft bargain, because he has been so highly touted for such a long time. However, if you are looking to make a pick based soley on upside (and a lot of it), go with Kendrick.

Mike Aviles – Kansas City Royals

I had to show some love for the native New Yorker. Aside from his good fortune from being born in the greatest city in the world, Aviles was also a solid middle infielder for Kansas City last season. After securing a regular spot in the Royals lineup, Aviles had a nice 2nd half hitting .322 with 6 HR, 47 Runs and 5 SB. If the 28 year old can build on his success in 2008, he will be a late round value for owners who missed out on the top guys.

BUYER BEWARE

Mark DeRosa – Chicago Cubs

I’m sorry, Mark DeRosa fans. I just don’t see it. The 35 year old’s career year in 2008 (.285 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 103 Runs) was an abberition. From 2006-2008 DeRosa had very consisten numbers regarding his amount of ABs and games. His batting average is always high, but his power and runs/RBI numbers were drastically lower. DeRosa is not someone I would count on to reproduce his 2008 output, nor is he someone I would start.

Kaz Matsui – Houston Astros

Can I just say I dont trust this guy? After a couple nice seasons in Colorado, Matsui ended up in Houston. He managed to steal 20 bases last season in only 93 games. However, Kaz Matsui has played in 100 games only twice in his career (his rookie season with the Mets being one of them. Remember when they moved Jose Reyes to 2B so Matsui could play SS? Laughable.) He is just not someone you can count on over the course of the season, and given his spotty history of inconsistent production, he is simply not worth the risk. Use your late round pick on someone else.