first basemen Archive

By Chris Duncan
3/9/2009

First base is a traditionally strong position in fantasy baseball. The top 5 starters at this position are typically gone before the end of the 2nd round. When all is said and done, a starting first baseman that gets .300/30/100 will have a neutral to slightly negative effect on your overall stats. First base has to be the foundation of your power production.

You'll want a 1B that will channel the spirit of Cecil Fielder... why not take his son Prince?

Last year, only 25 major leaguers hit more than 30 home runs. Of those 25 players, 12 are eligible to play 1B in Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Last year, 26 players had 100 RBI or more with 13 of them being first basemen. This isn’t a position where being eligible at multiple positions is advantageous. There’s no reason to pick a versatile guy (like Jeff Kent 2 years ago) because they’re undoubtedly more valuable at any position other than 1B.

Historically “different” players like Darin Erstad (low-medium power with steals) or Sean Casey (high average, runs, RBI, low homers) don’t offer much advantage either. You’ll be lacking too much power to compete with those guys. The categories you have to take into account here are primarily homers and RBI while runs and average will give you an edge on your competition. Last year, Lance Berkman had the most steals by a first baseman with 18. Conor Jackson and Erik Hinske both had 10. The average first baseman averages a shade under 5 SBs, so look for those elsewhere. If there were a 2002-2003 Derrek Lee on this list, I might offer some different advice.

At the same time, you have to be realistic with your expectations from these players. These are all post-juice players. Brendan Roberts of ESPN puts Joey Votto “at the end” of tier one of first basemen while half-heartedly predicting that he will put up .300, 34 HR, 105 RBI.  The guys that equaled or surpassed those numbers last year: Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Those are elite numbers. If you lower the bar to .290, then Jermaine Dye, Ryan Ludwick, and Miguel Cabrera can join the “Joey Votto Club”. Fantasy baseball flourished during the age of juice, but the power surge is over.

Only two players had 40 homers last season. A mere ten players hit over 30 home runs with a .290 average in 2008 and only eight reached those levels in 2007. The reality is that the variance between power hitters is going to be much smaller without as much “performance enhancement”. It makes more sense to put your money on pure hitters rather than power hitters. If you get 35+ homers out of your first baseman, you should be incredibly pleased.

TOP TEN

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
Albert Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of this generation and claims the number one spot on nearly every first baseman list (and a few overall lists as well). That’s because Mr. Pujols is one of the most patient and powerful hitters in the league who makes his living rounding the bases. Consider yourself extremely lucky if you snag him because it’s a treat to watch him play.

He gets on base at an incredible rate setting career highs in walks (104) and OBP (.462) last year. His BB/K ratio was a ridiculous 104:54 last year meaning that he only swings at good pitches. He even throws in 5-10 stolen bases for good measure that puts him at or slightly above the positional average. His production in all five fantasy baseball hitting categories make him the clear number one at first base. Only an injury can knock Prince Albert from his throne.

2. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
Teix has had superstar potential ever since coming up with the Rangers. However, there was talk of moving him to the outfield with Adrian Gonzalez’ (number one overall pick of 2000) imminent arrival in Arlington. When Gonzalez made it to the show in 2004, Teixeira had already put up 26 bombs as a rookie and was on his way to 38 dingers as a sophomore. Long story short, Gonzalez was shipped to San Diego and Mr. Teixeira became a franchise player.

While last year may not have been his best power performance, Teixeira has shown steady improvement as a hitter in his career. Last year’s .308 average, 97 walks, .410 OBP, and 97:93 BB/K ratio were career bests for the Georgia native. He will certainly improve on his 2008 run total and will likely add some RBI as well with his arrival in the Big Apple. Teixeira is a selective power hitter that doesn’t try too hard to hit homers. For that reason, he’s a lock to perform at or above his career averages of .290, 101 runs, 36 HR, and 121 RBI. If he puts up .300, 115 R, 40 HR, and 130 RBI he’s a top 10 overall player.

3. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
I have to put Miguel Cabrera lower due to his weight issues and a closer look at his statistics. He does have gawdy power stats with 37 homers and 127 RBI but there may be a story beneath the surface. He had an incredibly weak amount of runs last year.  He also had his lowest career numbers for a full season in walks (56) and OBP (.349) with his second lowest doubles production (36). You could call him a mini-Pujols — but Albert averages 124 runs/season with a .425 OBP. Cabrera has had a mere 91 and 85 runs in the past two seasons. If he doesn’t score 100 runs, there’s almost no way that he’ll crack the top 15 overall. He could be entering his prime, but I would also argue that he may already be there. While it’s definitely a possibility, don’t draft him expecting 40+ homers. He’s likely to have around .300, 100 R, 40 HR, 125 RBI.

4. Lance Berkman – Houston Astros
Lance Berkman might be the most underrated player in Major League Baseball. The Big Puma isn’t really a household name but he’s put up some of the most consistent numbers in the 2000s. If a second round (or third if you’re really lucky) sleeper ever existed, it’s him. You can be sure that Lance Berkman will put up comparable numbers to a top 5 first baseman. With .300+, 110 R, 35 HR, and 110 RBI, Berkman will likely be a top 20 player. If he hits 40 homers or steals 15 bases, he could be a top 15 player.

5. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
I love Ryan Howard. But I think I’m bitter because I got “burned” by him last year. Let’s do a comparison. Player A had .251, 105 R, 48 HR, 148 RBI, with a 81:199 BB/K ratio while Player B had .263, 99 R, 39 HR, 121 RBI, with a 89:167 BB/K ratio. Player A is obviously 2008 Ryan Howard and Player B is 2005 Richie Sexson. Howard is the most powerful player in the league — but he’s not markedly better than the best seasons of Richie Sexson or Mo Vaughn (or Greg Vaughn for that matter).

Already 29 years old (two months OLDER than Pujols’ listed age; emphasis on “listed”), how much better can Ryan Howard be this year? His tremendous power makes him a lock for the top 25 and probably the top 20. But I have a hard time believing that he can be elite and still whiff close to 200 times in a season. The decrease in his intentional walks from 37 in 2006 and 35 in 2007 to only 17 last year may suggest that teams have found a (better) way to pitch to him. NL East teams intentionally walked him 15 times (247 AB, 6.1% rate) in 2007 but only 9 times (281 AB, 3.2% rate) in 2008. I see him finishing with around .260, 100 R, 50 HR, 125 RBI.  He’s certainly not worth a top 15 pick and finished ranked 20th in 2008 and 30th in 2007 according to Yahoo.

6. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Justin Morneau all fall into the super-powerful but lumbering first baseman category. These guys hit a ton of homers and drive in runs but they lack run scoring potential. Fielder has had run totals of 82, 109, and 86 in his career. Listed at 6′0″ 260, he would be lucky to touch 109 runs again in his career. It’s more likely that he’ll score between 90-100 runs with (hopefully) a handful of steals. His real value lies in his massive power potential. Prince is a decent bet to surpass the 40 homer plateau, but we can’t be sure he’s capable of touching 50 bombs on a yearly basis. If he has .280, 90 R, 40 HR, 110 RBI, he should be a top 30 player.

7. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
Morneau broke onto the scene in 2004 with 19 bombs in only 74 games. He would’ve received a lot of ROY consideration had he not accumulated 7 ABs too many the previous season. After a subpar 2005 season, Morneau re-dedicated himself to baseball and hit .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBI to take home the AL MVP. He has established himself as one of the premier clean-up hitters in the league. However, there are still questions to be answered about Morneau. Is he really a 30+ home run guy? He may not be the guy that hits 40+ bombs a season as we hoped he would after his semi-rookie campaign. But he’s a protypical middle-of-the-order guy with huge RBI potential. Expecting 35-40 homers might be pushing it, but he will likely have 120+ RBI. Is he a .270 hitter or a .300+ hitter? Morneau has only had 2 seasons where he hit above .271, but there’s reason to believe he’s maturing as a hitter. Last year, he had a career best 76 walks with a career low 85 K’s. It is likely that he will be a top 30 or top 40 player.

8. Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres
Adrian Gonzalez has shown good power in the past two years. However, playing at Petco diminishes his value. Playing elsewhere, he might be in the middle of this list. His total of 36 homers last year was the most that any player has hit at Petco. Including his 30 homers last year, he has the only two 30 homer seasons at the Padres’ home field since it opened. Last year he had 14 HR at home compared to 22 on the road. He’s likely to have similar numbers this year with .280, 100 R, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI. That will make him a top 40 player.

In terms of incredible real life deals, Adrian Gonzalez is near the top of the list. Turning 27 this season, he made $500,000 in 2007 and $750,000 in 2008. With his new extension, he will make $3 million this year and $4.75 million next year. The Padres have a club option to keep him at $5.5 million in 2011. By comparison, Kevin Youkilis just signed a 4 year, $40 million contract.

9. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
At the end of the first tier of 1Bs is a collection of good average but only decent power. The drop off is pretty steep after Adrian Gonzalez, but Kevin Youkilis is an acceptable later option at first base. Youk lacks power so you’ll have to make up for that elsewhere. I could be very wrong but I think that the 29 homers were an anomaly. He hit a mere 30 homers with a .441 slugging in 1407 minor league at bats. Last year’s .569 slugging was .116 (25.6%) higher than his .453 mark in 2007. He’s also 30 — so you shouldn’t expect him to improve on last year’s numbers. You can probably expect .295, 95 R, 20+ HR, 100+ RBI. His home run total will likely dictate whether he’s a top 50 or top 75 player.

10. Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs
Two seasons of 40+ doubles after his injury suggest that the lanky slugger still has power. But we can’t expect him to get his 30+ homer pop back. He will probably have low-20s homers but you could be pleasantly surprised. Expect .295, 95 R, 20+ HR, 95 RBI, 5+ SB which probably makes him a top 75 player. If you need power, you may be better served drafting somebody else though.

BEST OF THE REST

Chris Davis – Texas Rangers
I’m not really counting him since somebody will likely take him to play 3B before you’d want him for 1B. He’s shown power at all levels and you can expect him to hit 25-30 homers in a full season of duty.

Aubrey Huff – Baltimore Orioles
He can still be a very good player but is likely to be taken as a 3B. He will likely turn in a season with mid to high 20s homers while hitting .290. He’ll be 32 this season, so don’t expect any big improvements on past performances.

Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays
A super-prospect that never quite panned out, Pena has always had power. If you’re really hurting for 25+ HR, he can probably help. Just be prepared to stomach his .251 career average. He struck out a career high 166 times last year — which is not good for a guy that’s 30. His managers sometimes have issues with his lack of selectiveness at the plate so don’t be surprised if he loses ABs. He’s a career .226 hitter vs. LHP.

Joey Votto – Cincinatti Reds
Votto should continue to improve but don’t expect him to be a top 10 1B. He’s a solid hitter but he’s not necessarily a power hitter. In 2553 minor league ABs he had 101 bombs and slugged .476. His power ceiling is probably in line with his production last year — expect mid to high 20s homers. He should provide good average as well… but he’s very similar to Atkins. So don’t draft him expecting 35 homers.

Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals
Big Donkey provides immense power. He also strikes out a ton. If your league counted OBP instead of AVG, he’d be a top 10 1B. Draft him for his homers but account for his below-the-Mendoza average. He could steal 5+ bases which is also a bonus.

Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies
He usually hit 5th last year and gets decent RBI.  However, he performs much better in the clean up spot — so he may experience a slight bump in value this year. His .290+ average is also helpful. He’ll probably put up comparable numbers to Youkilis or Derrek Lee.

Adam LaRoche – Pittsburgh Pirates
Expect around .270, 70 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI but don’t start him during April. He’s a career .182 hitter during the first month of the season.

Conor Jackson – Arizona Diamondbacks
A good pure hitter, Conor Jackson is a decent option at corner infield. You can expect him to hit around .290 but there’s no guarantee he’ll hit much more than 15 homers. He doesn’t have much upside — he’s the slim version of Sean Casey.

James Loney – Los Angeles Dodgers
He’s only 25 this year and has shown flashes during his 3 years in the majors. His minor power surge with 15 HR in 334 AB in 2007 was likely a lucky year. He had only 36 homers in 2203 minor league ABs. However, he’s still very young and could provide 20 homers if everything goes his way.

SLEEPERS

Carlos Delgado – New York Mets
He’s really the only true sleeper at first base. 2007’s poor performance may have been partly a fluke but age will start to catch up to him. He turns 37 this year, but he’s almost startable if he can surpass 30 homers. He finished last year ranked 38th overall.

David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox
Ortiz is no longer 1B eligible after appearing at DH in all 108 games he played last year. However, he’s playing first base for the Dominican Republic in the WBC and has reportedly lost weight in the offseason. If you can’t draft an elite first baseman, it could be worth playing him if he gains first base eligibility. He played between 7-10 games at first base the previous three seasons, so it’s not out of the question that he could play games there this year. He could perform as well as the “average” .280/25/90 first baseman you’ll get in the middle rounds. At 33, he’s entering the twilight of his career, but he can still be very useful.

Gary Sheffield – Detroit Tigers
Sheff is going to be 40 but he’s always been able to play. It might be worth snagging him late for an upside with .280, 90, 20+, 95… but that’s IF he can make it through a full season. He’s more likely to play around 120 games.

BUYER BEWARE

Mike Jacobs – Kansas City Royals
I have a hard time believing the 32 homers were real. Jacobs had only 71 homers in 2078 ABs and slugged .471 in the minors. It’s more likely that he he was just trying harder to hit bombs. His .299 OBP in 2008 is also extremely ugly.

Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
I don’t mean to hate on this guy, but I’m tired of seeing him on sleeper lists. I remember him being one of the most hyped fantasy baseball prospects back in the day — and I think a lot of us nerds are still hung up on him. Get over it. He’s a career .277 hitter and you’re better served looking elsewhere in the scrap heap.