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Shrewd Moves II: Pirate Edition

I’ll admit that SEAL snipers are cool, but I’m tired of hearing about pirates unless they’re Pittsburgh Pirates.  I love the young lineup that they throw out and they seem to be jelling.  A lot of pundits liked Cincy as a overperforming team with a young core — but it could be the Pirates filling that role in 2009.  In other news, Toronto is the hottest hitting team in the majors, so players like Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro may have been picked up in your league.

Because there isn’t much to say to preface this article, I felt the need to add a quote that I remembered today.  This beauty comes from Dennis Haysbert as Cerrano in Major League. I can never decide if it’s better than “hats for bats” (which was the name of one of my fantasy teams about 10 years ago).

“I say f*ck you Jobu. I do it myself.” — Pedro Cerrano

This week we examine another group of players that could make an impact this season.  For hitters, I’m bullish on guys in good lineups and players that have won good spots in the order.  The pitchers list is composed of mostly young guys that are unproven in the majors.  A lot of these guys are dicey, so proceed with caution.

HITTERS

Scott Rolens altered stance may improve his production

Scott Rolen's altered stance may improve his production

Scott Rolen – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays
Rolen changed his stance to one that puts less stress on his shoulder.  He performed well at the end of last season and he’s continued his success in the beginning of 2009.  I think that surgeries have probably sapped his old power potential, but he could still hit 20 homers.  Toronto is one of the hottest hitting teams in the league, so he’s worth picking up while he’s playing well.

Jason Kubel – OF/DH – Minnesota Twins
He’s one of the first players I put on the list this week.  Shortly thereafter, he hit for the cycle which got him some SportsCenter time.  Kubel is hitting 4th for the Twins behind Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, and Justin Morneau.  He’ll have a lot of opportunites to drive in runs and has the potential to hit 20+ homers.  He hit .272 with 20 homers in only 463 ABs last year and was a career .320 hitter in the minors.

Akinori Iwamura – 2B – Tampa Bay Rays
In his first two seasons in the MLB, Iwamura hit .285 and .275.  He didn’t really put up eye-popping stats in those years, but he can be a solid fill-in player.  He scored 90 runs last year and is on pace to score 100+ so far this year.

Chad Tracy – 1B/3B – Arizona Diamondbacks
Tracy only managed to rack up 500 ABs over the past two seasons.  Prior to those two half-seasons lost to knee injuries, he hit 27 and 20 home runs.  He’s been batting mostly 4th and 5th, but he hasn’t played every day.  He’s a guy to keep an eye on though.

Jason Bartlett – SS – Tampa Bay Rays
He has very little power, but he can still be a useful fantasy player.  In 6 seasons in the majors, Barlett has only 13 home runs and last season he hit just one.  This season, he’s off to a hot start with 2 homers already.  Bartlett is a career .280 hitter and he should easily surpass 20 SBs.  If he steals 30 bases, he’ll be a great value.

Cody Ross – OF – Florida Marlins
Ross has 50 homers in 986 major league ABs, so the guy clearly has pop.  He hit 22 bombs last year in only 461 ABs.  He started off with a poor first week but he’s picked it up recently.  Ross could be a bargin if he duplicates his 20+ homers from last year.

Freddy Sanchez – 2B – Pittsburgh Pirates
He’s always done work with the bat, but he doesn’t fill up box scores.  Sanchez is a career .301 hitter and averages 79 runs, 8 homers, and 67 RBI per 162 games.  He could improve on those averages in what I think is a better than average Pirates lineup.

PITCHERS

Max Scherzer could emerge as a solid option

Max Scherzer could emerge as a solid option

Max Scherzer – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks
He is clearly a superior talent but he also clearly needs polish.  He pitched 56 innings with a 3.05 ERA for the D-Backs last year but walked 21 batters.  In his first two starts of 2009, he’s walked 6 batters in 10 IP.  Before that, he made a rehab start for Single A Visalia and pitched 4.2 innings while walking 4 and hitting a batter.  Scherzer needs to hone his control, but he could blow up sooner rather than later.

John Lannan – SP – Washington Nationals
In Lannan’s first two seasons in the majors, he had ERAs of 4.15 and 3.91.  His strikeout rate is a little troubling, but he has a lot of potential.  He showed that potential in his last start where he K’d 8 batters in 6.1 IP while only allowing one run.

Paul Maholm – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates
He may be in his prime and he’s proven that this season and last.  In 2008, Maholm was 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA and 139 K’s in 206.1 IP.  This year, he’s 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 6 stirkeouts in 20.2 IP.  His strikeout rate should increase since he has a career 5.7 K/9 ratio.  I also think the Pirates are better than most people think so his win total could be in the teens.

Dallas Braden – SP – Oakland A’s
At 25, Braden finds himself as the ace of the A’s.  With Justin Duchscherer’s injury, Braden has the most major league experience in the A’s rotation other than Dana Eveland.  He doesn’t have an overwhelming strikeout rate with Oakland, but Braden did strike out 390 batters in 346.2 minor league innings.  He’s 1-2 this year but in that span he has allowed only 3, 2, and 1 runs for a 2.79 ERA.

Rick Porcello – SP – Detroit Tigers
Porcello landed in the majors at only 20 years old thanks to Dontrelle Willis’ issues.  The Tigers’ staff is in shambles and Porcello may be the main bright spot this year.  He doesn’t strike out many batters, but he could develop into a very good starter.

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Shrewd Moves: Opening Week

Shrewd Moves is an attempt to identify players that are not owned in most leagues but could provide a boost in the near future.  I would say less than half of these guys will pan out.  Some of these players will be useful for only certain parts of the season.  Hopefully, this list will help you prepare for your early season moves.  Feel free to leave other suggestions in the comments.

HITTERS

Fred Lewis looks to improve his production from the 3rd spot

Fred Lewis looks to improve his production from the 3rd spot

Ryan Spilborghs – OF – Colorado Rockies
He can flat out hit.  His career average in the majors is a cool .302, but he’s never had more than 264 ABs.  It looks like he’s an every day player this year for the Rockies and that could provide a huge boost in his value.  He’s been batting mostly 1st or 2nd for the Rockies.

Dexter Fowler - OF – Colorado Rockies
The #1 prospect for the Rockies looks like he’s in the majors to stay.  He’s been earning a lot of time with his hot bat.  He hit .335 in his last season in the minors at Double A Tulsa.  He has the upside to hit teens homers and 20+ steals in a full season.

Aaron Hill – 2B – Toronto Blue Jays
In 2007, Hill hit 17 homers and had 78 RBI while hitting .291.  He had been plagued by post-concussion syndrome and did practically nothing last year.  He’s 27 this year with the 2B gig to himself.  He could be a better 2B free agent pick up than drafted players like Mike Aviles and Mark DeRosa.

Jack Cust - OF, DH – Oakland A’s
Cust has enough power to jack 30 bombs in a season.  His main problem is his tendency to strike out.  He’s also a very streaky player.  Last year, he was slotted 3rd, 4th, or 5th in about 130 games.  In 2009, he’s been hitting anywhere from 5th to 8th.  Expect him to move closer to 5th when he’s hot and he’s worth playing when he’s hitting.

Fred Lewis - OF – San Francisco Giants
He’s off to a hot start with 8 hits in his first 16 at bats.  He’s also walked 4 times compared to 3 strikeouts.  This is a guy that hit .280+ in his first two seasons in the bigs.  Last season, he had 9 homers to go with 20 steals.  He was slotted mostly 1st and 3rd at other times last year.  Bochy has had him bat 3rd in every game so far in 2009.

Eric Byrnes - OF – Arizona Diamondbacks
Byrnes stands to benefit from Justin Upton’s slow start.  He could find himself getting regular ABs soon.  If that’s the case, he’s still a useful player at 33.  He was at least 20/20 in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

Ryan Church – OF – New York Mets
He’s started the season 10 for 19 with a whopping 5 doubles in 5 games.  He might lose ABs to Sheffield, but he could have value if he continues to hit in a strong Mets lineup.  He’s been slotted 6th behind Beltran in each game and had 12 homers and 49 RBI in only 319 ABs last year.

PITCHERS

Dave Bush looks to continue his success from 2008

Dave Bush hopes to continue his success from 2008

Chris Volstad - SP – Florida Marlins
Volstad split time between AA and the majors getting called up in the middle of the 2008 season.  He posted a 2.88 ERA in the big leagues and could put together an above average sophomore campaign.

Brad Penny - SP – Boston Red Sox
Penny came to Boston to get his career back on track.  In the offseason, he signed a one year deal worth $5 million with up to $3 million more in incentives.  He has a good team behind him and is only 2 years removed from finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Edwin Jackson - SP – Detroit Tigers
It’s hard to believe that Jackson is still only 25.  He’s been around for a while without ever putting it together, but could be a decent pick up.

Kyle Davies - SP – Kansas City Royals
One of two former Braves fifth starters in the KC rotation (Ramirez), Davies actually put together a respectable half-season last year.  In 113 IP, he had a 4.06 ERA with a 9-7 record.  If he can improve on that performance, he’s definitely worth considering.

Anibal Sanchez – SP – Florida Marlins
Part of a very talented rotation, Sanchez gets forgotten behind Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Ricky Nolasco.  At only 22, Sanchez posted a 2.80 ERA and 10-3 record with the Marlins in 2006.  Sanchez is now 25 and handled a strong Mets lineup well in his first start.

Dave Bush - SP – Milwaukee Brewers
Bush had a nice start going until he loaded the bases and the bullpen blew it.  His propensity to give up long balls is concerning, but he had a 4.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last year.  After May, he had ERAs of 3.65, 3.49, 2.12, and 4.50 in the remaining four months of the season.

Kevin Millwood – SP – Texas Rangers
Believe it or not, Millwood had a nice opening start for the Rangers.  He’s only two years removed from a 16 win season.  It’s not that likely that he’ll be great — but he’s more likely than any other Rangers starter to find success.

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